This is a selected list of useful sports betting books, with special focus on football prediction.
An easy-to-read handbook to learn about mathematical football prediction.
Analysis of Football Prediction Methods – by William Brojanigo (2013)
The authors develop models to predict the outcome of football matches. They study the Dixon-Coles model for the full-time scores, with special attention on the difference of goals, which is more advantageous than modeling the scores themselves. The authors developed two basic models for the difference of goals based on the discrete Normal distribution that gives us interesting results as compared to the Skellam distribution. Furthermore, they study the Dixon-Robinson model for the goal times and they investigate the possible clustering of goal times data. Using self-exciting point processes, the book found that the scoring rate in a football match tends to be higher during the minutes straight after a goal has been scored. The books results are a solid starting point for more sophisticated analyses.
This book is a good read. 78 pages, no frills.
Do you want to learn how to predict the scores of NFL games in a thoughtful and time-tested way? Do you want to know who is going to win and by how much? Now you can! In the Get In and Win Pro Football Playbook, the author, a Wall Street veteran and lifelong sports fan, teaches sports fans how to compile Score Sheets and Value Ratings – both of which are original strategies (based on proven investment practices) that reveal the winning pro football information that’s hidden in plain sight so you can predict NFL scores and get in on the action too. And should you choose to use this information to place a sports bet, the Get In and Win Pro Football Playbook will show you how to bet smart. By doing so, you won’t win all the time – no one does – but you will win far more often than you lose. After reading and applying the Get In and Win methods to predict NFL scores and place winning wagers, you will begin to see the NFL through the eyes of the league’s top players, coaches and general managers. Armed with the innovative and insightful Get In and Win perspective, you will never view what is happening on the gridiron the same way again.
The Numbers Game: Why Everything You Know About Football is Wrong – by Chris Anderson and David Sally (2014)
The Numbers Game by Chris Anderson and David Sally reveals football’s astonishing hidden rules. The 2014 Edition has been updated with an extra World Cup chapter. Football has always been a numbers game: 4-4-2, the big number 9 and 3 points for a win. But what if up until now we’ve been focusing on the wrong numbers? What if the numbers that really matter, the ones that hold the key to winning matches, are actually 2.66, 53.4, 50/50, and 0 > 1? What if managers only make a 15% difference? What if Chelsea should have bought Darren Bent? In this incisive, myth-busting book, Chris Anderson, former goalkeeper turned football statistics guru, and David Sally, former baseball pitcher turned behavioural economist, show that every shred of knowledge we can gather can help us to love football and understand it even more. You’ll discover why stopping a goal is more valuable than scoring one, why corners should be taken short, and why it is better to improve your worst player than to buy a superstar. You’ll never play, or watch, a game of football in quite the same way again. The Numbers Game is essential reading for football fans everywhere and will also appeal to readers who loved Moneyball and Freakonomics. At 17, Chris Anderson found himself playing in goal for a fourth division club in West Germany; today, he’s a professor in the Ivy League at Cornell University in Ithaca, New York. An award-winning social scientist and football analytics pioneer, Anderson consults with leading clubs about how best to play the numbers game. David Sally is a former baseball pitcher and a professor at the Tuck School of Business at Dartmouth College in the US, where he analyses the strategies and tactics people use when they play, compete, negotiate, and make decisions. He is an adviser to clubs and other organizations in the global football industry.